Opec+ agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meetings yesterday as the group slows down its push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut.
The meeting of Opec+, which pumps half of the world’s oil, comes during a fresh US effort to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could add to oil supply if sanctions on Russia are eased.
If the peace deal fails, Russia could see its supply curbed further by sanctions. Opec+ groups the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia.
Brent crude closed on Friday near $63 a barrel, down 15 per cent this year.
“The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly,” said Jorge Leon, a former Opec official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
Opec+ has paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025, and yesterday’s meeting reaffirmed that decision, Opec said in a statement.
The group still has about 3.24m bpd of output cuts in place, representing around 3pc of global demand. Yesterday’s meetings did not alter those.
Opec said the Opec+ group had approved a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity to be used for setting output baselines from 2027, against which members’ output targets are set.
Opec+ has been discussing the issue for years and it has proved difficult because some members such as the UAE have increased capacity and want higher quotas.
Other members such as African countries have seen declines in production capacity but are resisting quota cuts. Angola quit the group in 2024 over a disagreement about its production quotas.
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